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Professor says Liberal incumbents likely to stay in Antigonish, GEST

A political science professor at StFX says the Liberal incumbent in Antigonish will likely keep his seat.

Randy Delorey, who won the Antigonish riding in the 2013 provincial election, is running against PC candidate Ray Mattie, Moraig MacGillivray of the NDP, and Atlantica candidate Ryan Smyth.

All three major parties have won the riding in the past three provincial elections.

Yvon Grenier, a professor of political science at StFX, tells The Hawk he thinks Delorey will hold onto his spot.

"Based on the results of 2013, and this (being) a university town and he brought some money to the university, I would be surprised if he would be defeated."

Grenier says Delorey and other incumbents have a distinct advantage in ridings with more than two strong candidates, since the opposition vote gets split.

He says that's definitely the case in Guysborough-Eastern Shore-Tracadie, where Lloyd Hines is vying to keep his seat.

The Liberal incumbent was recently under scrutiny for his expenses during his time as warden of the Municipality of the District of Guysborough.

Grenier says he doesn't think either PC candidate Rob Wolf or NDP candidate Marney Simmons will gather enough votes to unseat him.

"You have to move a lot of votes from one party to the other for him to be defeated," he says. "It's certainly possible, but the probable result is he will be elected again, I think."

Grenier says he predicts the four incumbents in the Quad Counties (Delorey, Hines, Michel Samson in Cape Breton-Richmond and Allan MacMaster in Inverness) will return to their seats, but Guysborough-Eastern Shore-Tracadie is the strongest possibility for an upset.

The Hawk's election night coverage gets underway as soon as the polls close at 8 p.m.

We'll have reporters in all of the Quad Counties' ridings, expert analysis with Larry Evans and Adam Rodgers in studio, and immediate results on the air and through all of our social media channels.

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